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How long should it take for wine purchased on pre-arrival coming from Europe to be received by your retailer?

A recent thread on the Mark Squires Bulletin Board on eRobertParker.com titled No longer a fan of Premier Cru attracted over 100 posts and I was struck how many times this issue was raised, often in the context of wines long since released such as 2003 Bordeaux.

Factors affecting timing

• In stock status at supplier at time of retailer's purchase (is it a supplier pre-arrival too?)
• Payment to supplier by retailer (no wine is released for pick-up until payment)
  
• Collection of purchase by retailer's logistics partner (should be within 1-2 weeks of payment)
• Frequency of container shipments (typically every 4-6 weeks)
• Time "on the water" (typically 30 days to California from Europe)
• Time to process the container contents upon arrival (10 days max)

Other than Bordeaux futures purchased at the outset of a new campaign (which should be 18-24 months max), most pre-arrival purchases should arrive within 3-6 months from Europe.

Why it might take longer than 3-6 months

1. Known period before supplier receives wine - If the wine was not in stock at the supplier when purchased, your retailer should be told the estimated time before the wine is available for pick-up (trade sources expect to be asked this question in this situation).
2. Did your retailer have a written invoice confirming his supply before selling the wine to you? If your retailer was speculating by offering wine for sale that he would try to "backfill" later once he'd sold it to you, then you're dealing with the wrong retailer.  This circumstance would also explain extended delays for wine long since released  (such as 2003 Bordeaux) as the pricing of supply could have moved against the retailer since he sold you the wine.  The longer he defers fulfilling your order, the longer he defers recognition of his loss.
3. Supplier defaults - The supplier may not have honored his written commitment to your retailer (or may be experiencing his own delays receiving the wine from his source).  There are a variety of reasons this could happen but as the customer, it shouldn't be your problem even if the wine ends up needing to be sourced elsewhere at a loss to your retailer.  However, depending on the scarcity of the wine, it might add a few months to the delivery period.  Any period beyond a few months is not reasonable absent a specific explanation of what happened.

Bottom line: If you're experiencing longer delays than 3-6 months and are not provided with specific reasons, then you can assume your retailer's slow payment is at fault as everything else is fairly predictable.  If you agree with my hypothesis, you should at least consider whether you're comfortable with being a creditor to your retailer when the evidence indicates a "stretched" financial condition.  The longer the delivery delays, the more concerned you should be.

Related posts on pre-arrivals

1. Why buying pre-arrival wine makes sense
2. Wine futures and pre-arrivals: what's the difference?